Modeling green vehicle adoption: An integrated approach for policy evaluation

This article employs an integrated discrete-continuous car ownership model to jointly forecast households’ future preferences on vehicle type, quantity and use, and to estimate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The model system is estimated on a dataset collected from a web-based stated preference survey conducted in Maryland in 2014. The data contain vehicle purchase decisions and sociodemographic information of 456 households who were requested to state their future preferences over a 9-year period (2014–2022). In each time period, a respondent is faced to four alternatives that include the current vehicle, a new gasoline vehicle, a new hybrid electric vehicle, and a new battery electric vehicle. Intertemporal choices between conventional and “green” vehicles such as hybrid and electric cars capture dynamics in vehicle purchase decisions. Short run and medium-long run situations were predicted and compared based on the first 4-year data and the entire 9-year data of the dynamic panel. Vehicle GHG emissions were calculated correspondingly. We find the introduction of “green” vehicles makes a positive impact on car ownership and use, especially in a medium-long run. Two “green” taxation policies, gasoline tax and ownership tax, were proposed and their impact on vehicle use and emission reductions was evaluated. Results indicate that: (a) gasoline tax is a more effective way to reduce vehicle miles traveled and GHG emissions and (b) gasoline tax makes a higher impact on car use and emission reductions in the medium-long run, while ownership tax makes a higher impact in the short run.     

Policies to increase business tourism income: A dynamic panel data model

This article aims to identify the determinants that influence business tourism income and that may be controlled by economic agents and policy makers of destination countries. For the development of the empirical study, a dynamic panel model by the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) was estimated using the Gretl 2016a software, and a sample of 122 countries for the period 2002–2013 (12 years) was used. The study reveals that, for the development of policies to stimulate the growth in the short and long-term of business tourism income, countries should develop measures that encourage capital investment in tourism and foreign direct investment.     

Loss aversion and the asymmetric transmission of monetary policy

There is widespread evidence that monetary policy exerts asymmetric effects on output over contractions and expansions in economic activity, while price responses display no sizeable asymmetry. To rationalize these facts we develop a dynamic general equilibrium model where households’ utility depends on consumption deviations from a reference level below which loss aversion is displayed. State-dependent degrees of real rigidity and elasticity of intertemporal substitution in consumption generate competing effects on output and inflation. Contractions face the Central Bank with higher responsiveness of output to interest rate changes, as well as a flatter aggregate supply schedule.     

美国货币政策对中国经济动态冲击的实证研究

本文对美国货币政策对我国实体经济的冲击效应进行了实证检验,结构化动态冲击分析表明,美国货币政策正向冲击(1)短期内会引起中国总产出、出口总额的增加,长期中则会导致中国总产出、出口总额的下降;(2)短期内会造成中国进口总额的上升,长期中最终会对中国进口总额产生负向冲击;(3)方差分解结果显示,美国货币政策的正向冲击对中国出口总额的影响最大。(4)美国货币政策对中国实体经济影响程度相对于国内部分学者的结论较小。     

我国农村小额信贷未来发展路径探析

建设社会主义新农村需要大量的资金投入,特别是小额农贷对农民致富持续发展无疑又是举足轻重。本文首先分析了我国农村小额信贷存在的问题,进而指出了其未来的发展路径。得出邮政储蓄银行在农村小额信贷业务方面大有可为。最后分析了邮政储蓄银行农村小额信贷风险的防范措施。     

2011-2012年中国宏观经济分析与预测——复苏放缓、风险上扬与结构刚性冲击下的中国宏观经济

本文通过全面总结2011年中国宏观经济的3大表现,利用中国人民大学宏观经济预测模型,指出2012年中国将面临外部经济放缓、内部房地产市场深度调整、泡沫经济逆转以及金融风险加剧的冲击,但在结构刚性的约束下,政府将全面转变政策定位,从而保证中国经济在加速回落中实现反弹,全年经济增长呈现“前低后缓”的模式.     

How broad-based is broad-based black economic empowerment?

Common perceptions about broad-based black economic empowerment (BBBEE) have been that it is nothing more than a tool for the already affluent to access further wealth and has limited potential to address the economic exclusion of the most marginalised. An analysis was conducted of data on black economic empowerment (BEE) deals between 2004 and 2009. The findings demonstrate that although the elite continue to benefit from deals, broad-based beneficiaries, particularly employees and women, are also beginning to benefit to some extent. This suggests that empowerment policies have some potential to promote private sector involvement in addressing the state's social transformation agenda. However, a closer analysis of the BEE transactions shows that the BEE landscape is far more complex and nuanced than commonly thought. Further research is necessary to understand the real impacts of BEE on the ground.     

“克隆”银行卡纠纷民事责任的认定

近年来,银行卡引发的持卡人起诉金融机构承担卡内资金丢失纠纷案件已成为审判机关民商事审判的热点、难点问题。判研案件性质的界定和裁判规则的明细统一,以期使司法行为的引领功能得到有效的发挥。     

网络银行发展的现状、问题及对策

网络银行是信息化时代银行业的新型产物,成本低,发展前景广阔.介绍我国网络银行的产生和发展历程,分析其发展现状和存在的问题,并提出相应的对策,旨在促进网络银行健康发展.